Reading The Tea Leaves, The Indies Have Spoken

With New Jersey and Virginia switching sides and NY-23 district's very narrow win by Bill Owens, could there be a shift in power come 2010? First, let's look at the point spread between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds, which was 17 points. Deeds, who only won 41% of the vote was far behind Obama's 53% in 2008. This actually speaks volumes when you consider that Obama is not even a year into his first term and the amount of black and young voters that actually turned out to vote was about 5% lower than 2008. Not to mention Obama's presence during the campaigns wasn't enough to push Deed's and Corzine over the finish line. In New Jersey the point spread was a narrow 4%, with Jon Corzine garnering 45%, which was way behind Obama's 57%. By contrast, George Bush won Virginia by 54% in 2004 and Bob McDonnell won by 59% of the vote. In New Jersey, Bush took 46% and Christie squeaked passed that at 49%. Taking these numbers and the issues that concerned voters the most, it seems that democrats were not as optimistic as they were in 2008. When you look at the county break down of both states, you may just notice that more conservatives came out to vote than there were in 2008. Of course it was the indies that voted for Obama in 2008 that shifted sides in both states. The special election in New York's 23rd district is also of interest, despite the fact that Doug Hoffman lost by an extremely narrow margin. This election is a clear message that the GOP is in turmoil between so-called "moderate" Republicans and Conservatives and it has shown just how deep the divide is between the two. To many democrats, it would seem that this tumult is a boon for their party by showing Americans that Conservatives have no tolerance for bipartisanship. What they seem to forget is that the Tea Party movement and the 9/12 Project had a lot to do with what happened in NY-23. What I mean is that once Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the race, she did so because Conservatives, Independents and many Republicans pulled their contributions when she showed her true colors. The message sent to the Republican turncoat by voters was one of "Enough is enough. We're not voting for a RINO." And the money dried up. When this happened, she bailed and sided with Bill Owens which, in turn, fractured the rift between Conservatives and Republicans even wider. Even though she dropped out, her name was still on the ballot and took in 5% of the vote. These 5% so-called Republicans decided to go down with the ship, which could have pushed Hoffman over the finish line. Considering the very narrow margin in NY-23, and the sweeping wins in Virginia and New Jersey, it would seem that the tea leaves have spoken and the Independents are speaking loudly of what's to come this time next year. It's also a crystal clear message to Republicans that they need to do some serious soul searching on Republican core values of less government, less spending and individual responsibility. To the democrats who think that the Virginia and New Jersey upsets are of no consequence had best rethink them. Because what you are witnessing is only the beginning of what's to come and you are ignoring it at your peril. Democrats may think that the divide between fake republicans and true conservatives is a win-win scenario in next years mid-term elections, are blind to who actually pushed Mcdonnell and Christie over the finish line. Those would be the Independents and they are mad as Hell. The next election to watch closely is Florida, between Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio. As of this writing Rubio has closed the 30% gap by half. Sources Contests serve as warning to Democrats: It's not 2008 anymore A Deathblow for ObamaCare Behind the Democratic Wipeout Democrats, incumbents get wake-up call